Jobs Report Generates 1% Enthusiasm

Market Report for Friday, June 6, 2025

Jobs Report Generates 1% Enthusiasm

Friday’s market pulled off a tidy hat trick: decent jobs data, a thaw in the Trump-Musk cold war, and China prying open the rare-earth pantry just enough to feign generosity. None of it tilted the field, but together, it prodded bulls to a 1% gain.

Level Change 6/6/25 (%)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
+1.1 Dow
+1.2 Nasdaq
+1.0 Nasdaq 100
+1.0 S&P 500
+1.0 S&P 400
+1.2 S&P 600

Stocks rallied across the board, pushing the S&P 500 over the 6,000 mark, more than 20% above its early April low and within 2.5% of February’s record close at 6,144. The world may pull through this trade war after all.

Start with the jobs report.

May nonfarm payrolls rose 139K, beating the 130K consensus, though downward revisions to March and April took a little shine off. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%, supported by a dip in participation—fewer people looking for work. Wages came in hot at +0.4% month-over-month, reigniting the Fed’s internal debate between “wait” and “wait longer.”

In other words, soft landing enthusiasts got their Goldilocks moment.

Employment’s holding up, wage growth isn’t collapsing, and there’s just enough uncertainty to keep the Fed motionless. True, no imminent rate cut, but with the effective fed funds rate at 4.3%—lower than it was during the 1980s boom and the dot-com froth of the late ’90s—nobody’s exactly gasping for liquidity.

Tesla (TSLA +3.7%) bounced back from Thursday’s stomach-churning plunge—its second-worst day since 2020—after reports of a Trump-Musk detente. The White House denied any upcoming phone call but leaked that Trump plans to sell his Tesla, presumably while grousing that it won’t take commands in all caps. The bromance is broken, but for now, the revenge tweets are still in drafts.

Trade got a whiff of progress, too. The White House confirmed high-level US-China talks are set for Monday in London, confirming that this week’s call successfully produced the one thing both sides can always deliver: another meeting.

More important, Beijing cracked open the rare-earth vault ever so slightly, granting export licenses for magnets used in everything from EVs to missiles. The pace remains glacial, and the message clear: these aren’t concessions, they’re bargaining chips. China’s 90% stranglehold on rare-earth magnets makes OPEC look quaint, and they’re wielding it like a Bond villain petting a cat.

One Chinese policy advisor put it plainly: rare earths are leverage, and Beijing intends to use them. It seems to be working. Mercedes-Benz, among others, is already scrambling for supply workarounds that probably don’t exist. If you’re wondering whether geopolitics matters to markets, ask any factory engineer currently Googling “non-magnetic EV propulsion.”

Back in earnings land, Broadcom (AVGO -5%) beat slightly and kept the AI dream alive, but not enough to support high expectations. AI revenue jumped 46% to $4.4B, with CEO Hock Tan promising ten consecutive quarters of growth on hyperscale partners writing blank checks. But the stock still dropped 5% as investors focused less on the gold rush and more on the company’s non-AI business, which still moves at the speed of 2019.

Lululemon (LULU -19.8%) got pulled taut on the tariff rack, cutting its full-year outlook as rising costs and softer demand stretched those yoga pants uncomfortably thin. CFO Meghan Frank broke the news with athleisure-grade calm: gross margins are now expected to drop 110 basis points for the year, with nearly half the drop blamed on tariffs—30% on China, 10% everywhere else they source. Investors responded like consumers confronting a $98 tank top: they backed away.

The takeaway from Friday and indeed the week is that spring’s tariff-induced anxiety attack is over. The weirdness of this trade war will get ironed out. The craziest threats won’t stick, and companies will forge ahead, likely in moisture-wicking, duty-not-free performance fabric.

How long this optimism holds is Wall Street’s six-thousand-dollar question.

Kelly Letter subscribers, I’ll see you Sunday.

— Jason Kelly