Markets Toast a Half-Point Gain on Trade Chill
Market Report for Monday, June 30, 2025
Markets Toast a Half-Point Gain on Trade Chill
Stocks closed out June with a glass-half-full toast, bolstered by tariff tea leaves and just enough political noise to keep boredom at bay. The S&P and Nasdaq hit record highs, still prematurely celebrating trade war denouement.
Level Change 6/30/25 (%)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
+0.6 Dow
+0.5 Nasdaq
+0.6 Nasdaq 100
+0.5 S&P 500
+0.0 S&P 400
-0.2 S&P 600
Wall Street found itself in a celebratory mood Monday, as trade headlines gave bulls a reason to press “Buy” instead of “Bother.” The S&P 500 and Nasdaq coasted to new closing highs, helped along by Canada backing off its digital-service tax — the one President Trump publicly swatted on Friday — and a faint whiff of EU compromise drifting across the Atlantic.
The EU may agree to a 10% universal tariff ahead of the July 9 deadline, or so says Bloomberg, citing unnamed officials with unusually sunny calendars. Some sectors may get exemptions, though that part is parked in a Brussels back room, awaiting translation.
Japan, meanwhile, got the diplomatic equivalent of a sticky note. Trump said “we’ll just be sending them a letter,” presumably with tariff terms enclosed and a smiley face drawn in Sharpie. Treasury Secretary Bessent chimed in helpfully that countries failing to play ball could face a return to the harsh April 2 tariffs, the state-level version of “don’t make me come down there.”
Outside the tariff tent, not much stirred.
The Senate entered vote-a-rama mode on the Big, Beautiful Bill, a legislative endurance contest of back-to-back amendment votes, where Democrats aim to pin Republicans to the record on touchy topics. Passage is expected, followed by another round of suspense when the bill returns to the House, where it may be greeted with polite confusion and procedural booby traps.
Fed commentary trickled in with all the impact of last week’s weather report. Atlanta’s Bostic and Chicago’s Goolsbee both reiterated that while things aren’t great, they’re not catastrophic either — unless they get worse. Which they might. Or not.
Now, all eyes turn to Thursday’s jobs report, where consensus calls for hiring to slow — gently, tastefully — to 115K from May’s 139K, and a bump in unemployment to 4.3%.
Strong hiring has been the Fed’s main excuse for keeping rates steady, even as inflation retreats. Trump wants cuts, of course, and some officials now appear willing to squint at the data until it supports his view. Thursday may give them something to work with.
And that was the day: trade cooled a little more, the bill crept toward daylight, and the Fed stared at its dashboard. Thursday’s jobs report might jiggle the needle.
— Jason Kelly