Now that half of America’s press corps has been assigned to finding fault with Boeing, many people have concluded that aviation is unsafe. It’s not. It looks no different this year from other years.
Leading up to this year’s comeuppance for Boeing, its 737 Max line already had a reputation for trouble. In October 2018, a 737 Max 8 crashed into the sea off Indonesia. In March 2019, a 737 Max 8 departed from Ethiopia and crashed six minutes after takeoff. The two accidents killed a combined 346 people.
On January 5 of this year, a door plug blew out of an Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9 shortly after takeoff, leaving a wide-open hole in the side of the plane. Three people received minor injuries, but all 171 passengers and six crew members survived. An investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is ongoing. A preliminary report in February said that four bolts intended to secure the door plug had been missing when it blew out, and Boeing’s records confirmed the missing bolts.
This is bad for Boeing, of course, and the company is paying for it. Stan Deal, Boeing’s former head of commercial planes, was let go immediately. CEO David Calhoun will leave at the end of the year. Chairman Larry Kellner will not stand for re-election. In a note to employees, Calhoun called the January 5 incident “a watershed moment for Boeing.”
Boeing testified in two Senate hearings probing its safety policies. Its reputation took a further tarnishing as witnesses described cost-cutting measures, problems left unresolved, and a pattern of silencing concerned employees.
Even so, it still plans to grow production of 737 Max planes to 50 per month in the coming years, once the Federal Aviation Administration signs off on Boeing’s manufacturing quality and lifts the current cap of 38 per month.
All this attention has put Boeing’s planes in the news for even routine incidents. The tone of coverage indicates the trend afoot. For example, Air Live reported last Sunday that a Boeing 767 needed to return to Washington International Airport 46 minutes after takeoff with the following headline, emphasis added: “Another United Boeing 767 is forced to divert following a mechanical issue.”
Time for the bigger picture.
The National Transportation Safety Board offers a complete list of accidents and incidents on its website. Can you guess how many events happened in January?
In addition to the door plug accident, which looks as follows in the database:
there were 75 other events, which you probably never heard about. Lest this make you nervous about flying, know that it’s typical. The following are the number of events reported by month over the past year:
NTSB Event Count
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
124 in Apr 2023
167 in May 2023
182 in Jun 2023
210 in Jul 2023
180 in Aug 2023
141 in Sep 2023
129 in Oct 2023
97 in Nov 2023
90 in Dec 2023
76 in Jan 2024
97 in Feb 2024
96 in Mar 2024
Most of these involved non-commercial aircraft, which is probably why there were more events in warmer months. Limiting to commercial aircraft in the United States, the database shows an average of 36 events per year from 2010 to 2023, and here at the one-third mark of 2024 we’re on track with the average, at 12 events.
Aviation remains extremely safe.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is the trade association for the world’s airlines, representing some 320 airlines or 83% of total air traffic. From its 2023 report:
“In a significant achievement, 2023 saw no fatal accidents or hull losses for jet aircraft, leading to a record-low fatality risk rate of 0.03 rate per million sectors. The commercial aviation sector recorded an exceptionally safe year in 2023, surpassing a series of outstanding years from 2014 onwards.”
According to Statista, the global airline industry carried more than 4 billion people in prepandemic 2019, and only 289 of them were killed.
Air travel remains extremely safe. Recent pressure on Boeing should make it even safer.