Noses Held on Whiff of War
Market Report for Tuesday, June 17, 2025
Noses Held on Whiff of War
Stocks tripped Tuesday as the US edged closer to a Middle East entanglement nobody ordered. The S&P shed less than 1%, but the headlines dropped harder, like they’d been written by a bunker-busting algorithm with FOMO.
Level Change 6/17/25 (%)
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
-0.7 Dow
-0.9 Nasdaq
-1.0 Nasdaq 100
-0.8 S&P 500
-0.8 S&P 400
-1.0 S&P 600
It was another day in that dependable genre of geopolitical cliffhangers, now streaming near the Strait of Hormuz. This one stars Trump, Netanyahu, and the Ayatollah, with a supporting cast of bunker busters and aerial bravado.
The White House toggled from “not in a mood to negotiate” to “we control the skies over Iran,” the snuck-in “we” suggesting US help to lower the boom on uranium enrichment. Israel, lacking the planes or payloads to reach Iran’s deep Fordo nuclear site, lobbied for the US to drop a few of its larger calling cards.
Drama-loving oil spiked 4.3%, with WTI brushing recent highs as traders priced in disruption — even though no tankers or pipelines have noticed a thing. That’s the slipperiness of geopolitics: nothing has to happen, it just has to make someone important say it might.
Under the green eyeshades, retail sales flopped. May’s headline number fell 0.9%, a steeper drop than expected. Blame it on auto sales falling back to earth after their March joyride, fueled by tariff jitters and fear of future sticker shock. But the control group — the slice of spending that feeds into GDP — rose 0.4%, offering a calmer view of consumer behavior. Americans haven’t shut their wallets, they’re just thinking harder before opening them.
From the Oval Office own goal file: trade talks with Japan went about as well as a frat-house tea ceremony. Prime Minister Ishiba and President Trump met at the G7 summit in Alberta and emerged with smiles and stalemates. Tariffs on Japanese cars remain, talks will drag on, and economists warn the standoff could cost Japan a percentage point of GDP — and the US one of its vital friendships.
Megatech didn’t help. Microsoft (MSFT -0.2%) and OpenAI are squabbling like neural-network co-parents in a custody dispute. OpenAI is trying to loosen the exclusivity Microsoft enjoys over hosting its models, while Microsoft would like some concessions in return — like, say, not getting stabbed in the back. With Google Cloud (GOOG -0.4%) stepping in to help on the hosting front, this AI drama is starting to resemble GPU polyamory with performance clauses.
All told, it was a down day, not a disaster. Investors are bracing, not bolting.
Those were Tuesday’s tremors: a whiff of war, weak sales, tariff stalemates, and tech tension.
— Jason Kelly