I am a crypto investor in addition to traditional finance (tradfi in crypto lingo). I think you overlook a couple of recent key developments that should be considered as demand drivers - ordinals and decentralized finance (defi) on BTC layer 2s. Both will create demand for BTC (ordinals already does) and generate fees for miners. There are BTC purists who do not like these developments, but ultimately I think these developments are necessary to create ongoing demand for BTC and to give miners a reason to keep processing transactions while future halvings continue to erode their profitability.
You may be right. I read in David Auerbach's "Meganets" that crypto could end up the currency of default in an increasingly digitized economy, including within games and social media, which could increase demand. Ordinals may play a part in this context. However, I'm not sure crypto will be able to escape regulation and taxation by government, which could reduce its appeal to that of fiat currency, relegating it to a depreciating asset. Even if bitcoin and other distinct cryptocurrencies enjoy a restricted supply, governments could overwhelm them with an unlimited supply of newly created crypto alternatives. We cannot know, but I take your point that there could be a source of demand beyond speculation.
I made my first investment in Bitcoin through coinbase back in 2012-13. It was a short hold and quick profit. Bitcoin and crypto are my only investments. Have been a HODLR since 2017. I just sold holdings in one of three accounts at the recent high. Treated myself and am looking to reinvest at the next low. Bitcoin is going to the moon so it doesn't matter when you take the plunge in, it only matters that you do to some degree.
A Bitcoin investor is unlike any other investor you will come across. Something like 70- 80% of Bitcoiners held bitcoin from $18,000 to $3,500.
This bitcoiner held bitcoin from $63,000 down to $16,000 and back up again.
Bitcoin is more than just an investment to us. It’s the literal embodiment of freedom. It’s a financial revolution that will displace the dollar.
Bitcoin is a cult. It’s a meme or idea. People who believe in bitcoin, adopt it, and are rewarded for it. Thus it’s a self reinforcing philosophy.
Many Bitcoiners plan to never sell their bitcoin no matter what the price. Does anyone view their stocks or real estate portfolio in that way? No they do not.
Bitcoiners are truly a different breed. If you don’t get that, you really don’t understand Bitcoin.
I have detected this. The question is whether it matters to long-term demand. Holding a store of bitcoin does not move the demand needle. New demand is necessary, and I'm not sure it will appear. Note that this is not the same as doubting it will appear, but simply being uncertain of it. I don't see how anybody can be certain, given the lack of fundamental value.
What is a certainty imo is that the govt will continue with their QE policies and rate cuts. When they do, assets will soar once again.
Bitcoin is over a $1 TT asset class. As the value of a Bitcoin continues rise, the more people will notice that it is indeed a store of value. The more rich people will buy to secure their legacies.
What seperates Bitcoin and TQQQ is that Bitcoin is a true sovereign asset. I can secure and transact with my Bitcoin in a way that’s simply not possible with TQQQ.
I would suggest you give Giovanni Santostassi work a look. He’s developed a “power law” model based on physics that show exactly where the price is going.
People continue to make doubts while bitcoin continues to make new ATH. If you want to sit on the sideline and watch it go to a Million then so be it, but that won’t be me.
There's no such thing as reliable forecasting. Financial and political forecasting take place in a zero validity environment, per the work of Daniel Kahneman. I am not forecasting bitcoin's future direction, but rather working on a potential system to use its fluctuation. This is a big difference. I run systems rather than engage in speculations, and to this end the only potential appeal of bitcoin is as a fluctuating price line.
I am a crypto investor in addition to traditional finance (tradfi in crypto lingo). I think you overlook a couple of recent key developments that should be considered as demand drivers - ordinals and decentralized finance (defi) on BTC layer 2s. Both will create demand for BTC (ordinals already does) and generate fees for miners. There are BTC purists who do not like these developments, but ultimately I think these developments are necessary to create ongoing demand for BTC and to give miners a reason to keep processing transactions while future halvings continue to erode their profitability.
You may be right. I read in David Auerbach's "Meganets" that crypto could end up the currency of default in an increasingly digitized economy, including within games and social media, which could increase demand. Ordinals may play a part in this context. However, I'm not sure crypto will be able to escape regulation and taxation by government, which could reduce its appeal to that of fiat currency, relegating it to a depreciating asset. Even if bitcoin and other distinct cryptocurrencies enjoy a restricted supply, governments could overwhelm them with an unlimited supply of newly created crypto alternatives. We cannot know, but I take your point that there could be a source of demand beyond speculation.
I made my first investment in Bitcoin through coinbase back in 2012-13. It was a short hold and quick profit. Bitcoin and crypto are my only investments. Have been a HODLR since 2017. I just sold holdings in one of three accounts at the recent high. Treated myself and am looking to reinvest at the next low. Bitcoin is going to the moon so it doesn't matter when you take the plunge in, it only matters that you do to some degree.
A Bitcoin investor is unlike any other investor you will come across. Something like 70- 80% of Bitcoiners held bitcoin from $18,000 to $3,500.
This bitcoiner held bitcoin from $63,000 down to $16,000 and back up again.
Bitcoin is more than just an investment to us. It’s the literal embodiment of freedom. It’s a financial revolution that will displace the dollar.
Bitcoin is a cult. It’s a meme or idea. People who believe in bitcoin, adopt it, and are rewarded for it. Thus it’s a self reinforcing philosophy.
Many Bitcoiners plan to never sell their bitcoin no matter what the price. Does anyone view their stocks or real estate portfolio in that way? No they do not.
Bitcoiners are truly a different breed. If you don’t get that, you really don’t understand Bitcoin.
I have detected this. The question is whether it matters to long-term demand. Holding a store of bitcoin does not move the demand needle. New demand is necessary, and I'm not sure it will appear. Note that this is not the same as doubting it will appear, but simply being uncertain of it. I don't see how anybody can be certain, given the lack of fundamental value.
What is a certainty imo is that the govt will continue with their QE policies and rate cuts. When they do, assets will soar once again.
Bitcoin is over a $1 TT asset class. As the value of a Bitcoin continues rise, the more people will notice that it is indeed a store of value. The more rich people will buy to secure their legacies.
What seperates Bitcoin and TQQQ is that Bitcoin is a true sovereign asset. I can secure and transact with my Bitcoin in a way that’s simply not possible with TQQQ.
Even though I hold both, I have more Bitcoin
I would suggest you give Giovanni Santostassi work a look. He’s developed a “power law” model based on physics that show exactly where the price is going.
People continue to make doubts while bitcoin continues to make new ATH. If you want to sit on the sideline and watch it go to a Million then so be it, but that won’t be me.
There's no such thing as reliable forecasting. Financial and political forecasting take place in a zero validity environment, per the work of Daniel Kahneman. I am not forecasting bitcoin's future direction, but rather working on a potential system to use its fluctuation. This is a big difference. I run systems rather than engage in speculations, and to this end the only potential appeal of bitcoin is as a fluctuating price line.
Check out Giovanni work on the Power Law before you say that. Bitcoin is an asset unlike any other. It is a true miracle imo.