Hi Jason, good to read you again. One thing you might want to add to your arsenal when pitching in the face of those arguing that "timing is everything"... I ran a quick study that compared investing $1000/month in a 'safe' 3% yielding fund (treasuries, mixed), and putting the full $12000/yr into the market at the absolute highest level the market reached in each calendar year. (In other words, the worst market timer on the planet...). While the $1000/mo investor did ok across 23 years (2000-2023), the "worst market timer on the planet" ran laps around him. So, when someone asks you, but is this the right time to put money into the market, tell them, if you can wait awhile and be disciplined about doing it every year, yes, its always the right time, even if its absolutely the very TOP for the year. Your mechanical rebalancing does exactly that. [By the way, did you ever give a hat tip/royalties to Robert Lichello, the author (or his estate) of the "How to Make a Million in the Stock Market, Automatically"? Predates you by several decades; he describes his "money machine" (AIM) that is an ancestor of your Sig systems!]
It's true about market timing. Why more investors don't understand it is hard to accept. You're also right about Lichello's AIM system. I have given multiple hat tips to Lichello and other giants on whose shoulders I stand, including value averaging researchers, and even offered instructions in the letter on how to run AIM. Most of my subscribers consider it too conservative and slow for what they're going after, given that it will never go all-in, but it is nonetheless a cousin of my approach and a respectable, rules-based system.
Hi Jason, good to read you again. One thing you might want to add to your arsenal when pitching in the face of those arguing that "timing is everything"... I ran a quick study that compared investing $1000/month in a 'safe' 3% yielding fund (treasuries, mixed), and putting the full $12000/yr into the market at the absolute highest level the market reached in each calendar year. (In other words, the worst market timer on the planet...). While the $1000/mo investor did ok across 23 years (2000-2023), the "worst market timer on the planet" ran laps around him. So, when someone asks you, but is this the right time to put money into the market, tell them, if you can wait awhile and be disciplined about doing it every year, yes, its always the right time, even if its absolutely the very TOP for the year. Your mechanical rebalancing does exactly that. [By the way, did you ever give a hat tip/royalties to Robert Lichello, the author (or his estate) of the "How to Make a Million in the Stock Market, Automatically"? Predates you by several decades; he describes his "money machine" (AIM) that is an ancestor of your Sig systems!]
Rick
Thank you, Rick.
It's true about market timing. Why more investors don't understand it is hard to accept. You're also right about Lichello's AIM system. I have given multiple hat tips to Lichello and other giants on whose shoulders I stand, including value averaging researchers, and even offered instructions in the letter on how to run AIM. Most of my subscribers consider it too conservative and slow for what they're going after, given that it will never go all-in, but it is nonetheless a cousin of my approach and a respectable, rules-based system.
Good to see you again!
Jason